Carboun Institute · Systems-Level Assessment · Draft 3

Climate Risks in the MENA Region

How intensifying drought, escalating heat extremes, and increasing flood risk cascade through water, food, energy, economic, and political systems — and why the most exposed states have the least capacity to respond.

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Physical stressors First-order impacts Compounding systems Cascading consequences Systemic trap Four policy imperatives Extreme heat 0.46°C/decade Drought & scarcity –20–40% precip. Flooding & storms Most recorded, 2024 Food insecurity 80–85% water to agriculture Labor & habitability 35°C wet-bulb survival limit Transboundary water stress 60% surface water shared Energy strain 70% peak load = cooling Flood infra. failure Drainage, dams, coastal zones Water geopolitics Nile · Tigris- Euphrates Rural displacement Syria: 1.5M to cities 2006–10 Desal. doom loop 48% global desal. capacity Fiscal compression Egypt · Lebanon Jordan debt Conflict & fragility Resource competition Mass displacement Libya · Yemen Sudan Economic losses 6–14% GDP loss by 2050 Adaptive failure Institutions overwhelmed Systemic lock-in Exposure ↑, capacity ↓ Adaptation as priority Water-smart transition Proactive resilience Integrated action desal. emissions → more warming fiscal stress → less adaptation
Heat
Water
Flooding
Food / economic
Political
Institutional

Dashed arcs on each side show feedback loops: the desalination–emissions cycle (left) and the fiscal stress–underinvestment cycle (right) — both described explicitly in the report.